Dr. Hunt has been teaching introductory psychology for 15 years. In each class, before the first lecture, she asks the students to fill out a short questionnaire in which they predict what their major will be and say how confident they are in their prediction. She then keeps track of what each student actually ends up majoring in. Over the years, about 45 percent of her students have correctly predicted their major, but her students' degree of confidence in this prediction has been about 75 percent on average. This illustrates an error in thinking called:

The above situation in case of Dr. Hunt arises because of the psychological effects of thinking error and this error is referred to as over confidence.

Over confidence alludes to the wonder that individuals' trust in their decisions and information is higher than the exactness of these decisions. To research this impact, the abstract judgment of trust in the rightness of a lot of answers is contrasted and the target precision of these answers.